Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFátima to win ✗67% · @1.60
Double chanceFátima or draw ✗88% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.03
Fátima vs Nazarenos preview and prediction
The match
Fátima host Nazarenos in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT). Fátima are 7th with 11 points from 8 games (in the top half), while Nazarenos sit 11th on 8 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Fátima's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Vinhais 4–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Nazarenos's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Os Marialvas 0–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Fátima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Fátima and 0.7 for Nazarenos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 45%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fátima 67%, draw 20%, Nazarenos 12%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Fátima to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fátima 1–0 Nazarenos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fátima67%fair 1.49 · @1.60
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.50
Nazarenos12%fair 8.05 · @5.00
2.61Expected goals
1.93Fátima xG
0.68Nazarenos xG
45%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Fátima 1.9 – 0.7 Nazarenos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fátima to win✗
67%
1.49
1.60 ▲
Double chance
Fátima or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Fátima ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fátima / FT Fátima✗
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.03
–
Form
Fátima – last 6
WLLWWD
20 Sep
vs Vinhais
4–1
W
13 Sep
vs Oliveira Hospital
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Os Marialvas
0–3
L
29 Aug
vs Benfica Castelo Branco
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Atlético Malveira
5–0
W
16 Aug
@ O Elvas
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Nazarenos – last 5
LLLLL
13 Sep
vs Os Marialvas
0–3
L
6 Sep
@ Atlético Malveira
0–3
L
30 Aug
vs Vitória de Sernache
0–3
L
23 Aug
vs O Elvas
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Mortágua
1–3
L
0.2Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fátima and Nazarenos.
Our pick is Fátima to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Fátima vs Nazarenos?
On our numbers Fátima have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Nazarenos 12%.
How many goals will there be in Fátima vs Nazarenos?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fátima vs Nazarenos?
Our predicted score is Fátima 1–0 Nazarenos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Fátima vs Nazarenos?
Fátima vs Nazarenos (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
