Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.98
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.57
Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco preview and prediction
The match
Mortágua host Benfica Castelo Branco in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT). Mortágua are 4th with 15 points from 8 games (in the top four), while Benfica Castelo Branco sit 8th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Mortágua's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Leça 0–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Benfica Castelo Branco's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to AD Nogueirense 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Mortágua arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Mortágua and 1.5 for Benfica Castelo Branco. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 50% and both teams to score at 51%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 50% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Mortágua 1–1 Benfica Castelo Branco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mortágua40%fair 2.51 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.10
Benfica Castelo Branco36%fair 2.78 · @2.80
2.99Expected goals
1.54Mortágua xG
1.45Benfica Castelo Branco xG
51%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Mortágua 1.5 – 1.5 Benfica Castelo Branco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mortágua to win✗
40%
2.51
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.57
–
Form
Mortágua – last 6
LDWDWW
20 Sep
vs Leça
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ UD da Serra
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Fazendense
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ SC Covilha
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Sertanense
3–1
W
16 Aug
vs Nazarenos
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Benfica Castelo Branco – last 6
LWLLWD
13 Sep
vs AD Nogueirense
2–3
L
6 Sep
@ FC Alverca II
1–0
W
29 Aug
@ Fátima
1–3
L
23 Aug
vs Naval 1893
1–4
L
16 Aug
@ Oliveira Hospital
3–2
W
25 Mar
@ Vitória de Sernache
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mortágua and Benfica Castelo Branco.
What is the prediction for Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
On our numbers Mortágua have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Benfica Castelo Branco 36%.
How many goals will there be in Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
Our predicted score is Mortágua 1–1 Benfica Castelo Branco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
