AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
AD Nogueirense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 2.75 – our chance 60% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +64%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓60% · @2.75
Double chanceAD Nogueirense or draw ✓83% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.72
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓13% · fair 7.45
AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense preview and prediction
The match
AD Nogueirense host Sertanense in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT). AD Nogueirense are 10th with 9 points from 8 games (in the bottom half), while Sertanense sit 13th on 5 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for AD Nogueirense and 1.0 for Sertanense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: AD Nogueirense 24%, draw 60%, Sertanense 17%.
Safer route: AD Nogueirense or draw (83%) at 1.28.
Value angle: Draw at 2.75 – 60% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AD Nogueirense or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AD Nogueirense 1–0 Sertanense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AD Nogueirense24%fair 4.20 · @2.30
Draw60%fair 1.68 · @2.75
Sertanense17%fair 6.06 · @3.20
2.12Expected goals
1.13AD Nogueirense xG
0.99Sertanense xG
42%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: AD Nogueirense 1.1 – 1.0 Sertanense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
60%
1.68
2.75 ▲
Double chance
AD Nogueirense or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AD Nogueirense / FT AD Nogueirense✗
22%
4.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✓
13%
7.45
–
Form
AD Nogueirense
No recent results on record.
Sertanense
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Nogueirense and Sertanense.
What is the prediction for AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense?
Our pick is AD Nogueirense or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense?
On our numbers AD Nogueirense have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 60% and Sertanense 17%.
How many goals will there be in AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense?
Our predicted score is AD Nogueirense 1–0 Sertanense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense?
AD Nogueirense vs Sertanense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
