Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.10 – our chance 56% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +72%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗56% · @3.10
Double chanceMortágua or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.59
Mortágua vs Nazarenos preview and prediction
The match
Nazarenos travel to face Mortágua in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C on Sunday 16 August (17:00 WAT). Mortágua are 4th with 15 points from 8 games (in the top four), while Nazarenos sit 11th on 8 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Mortágua's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Marinhense 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Mortágua and 1.0 for Nazarenos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 45%.
Value angle: Draw at 3.10 – 56% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mortágua or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mortágua 1–1 Nazarenos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mortágua28%fair 3.55 · @2.00
Draw56%fair 1.80 · @3.10
Nazarenos16%fair 6.17 · @3.40
2.25Expected goals
1.25Mortágua xG
1.01Nazarenos xG
45%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Mortágua 1.2 – 1.0 Nazarenos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
56%
1.80
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Mortágua or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua✓
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.59
–
Form
Mortágua – last 6
WLDLLW
29 Mar
vs Marinhense
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Naval 1893
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs Lajense
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Fátima
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Samora Correir
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Peniche
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Nazarenos
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mortágua and Nazarenos.
Our pick is Mortágua or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mortágua vs Nazarenos?
On our numbers Mortágua have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 56% and Nazarenos 16%.
How many goals will there be in Mortágua vs Nazarenos?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mortágua vs Nazarenos?
Our predicted score is Mortágua 1–1 Nazarenos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mortágua vs Nazarenos?
Mortágua vs Nazarenos (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
