Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.25 – our chance 57% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +84%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗57% · @3.25
Double chanceVinhais or draw ✗80% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.92
Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte preview and prediction
The match
Vinhais host Maria da Fonte in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT). Vinhais are 14th with 0 points from 8 games (in the bottom three), while Maria da Fonte sit 13th on 7 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Vinhais and 1.2 for Maria da Fonte. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vinhais 24%, draw 57%, Maria da Fonte 20%.
Safer route: Vinhais or draw (80%) at 1.36.
Value angle: Draw at 3.25 – 57% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vinhais or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Vinhais 1–1 Maria da Fonte. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vinhais24%fair 4.21 · @2.30
Draw57%fair 1.77 · @3.25
Maria da Fonte20%fair 5.07 · @2.70
2.57Expected goals
1.33Vinhais xG
1.24Maria da Fonte xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Vinhais 1.3 – 1.2 Maria da Fonte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
57%
1.77
3.25 ▲
Double chance
Vinhais or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vinhais / FT Vinhais✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.92
–
Form
Vinhais
No recent results on record.
Maria da Fonte – last 1
L
31 Jul
@ Fafe
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vinhais and Maria da Fonte.
What is the prediction for Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte?
Our pick is Vinhais or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte?
On our numbers Vinhais have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 57% and Maria da Fonte 20%.
How many goals will there be in Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte?
Our predicted score is Vinhais 1–1 Maria da Fonte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte?
Vinhais vs Maria da Fonte (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
