FSV Mainz 05 vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
1
Value bet: FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✓51% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · fair 1.67
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗64% · @1.75
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.49
FSV Mainz 05 vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai preview and prediction
The match
FSV Mainz 05 host Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in the Friendlies Clubs on Friday 31 July, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT).
Form guide
FSV Mainz 05's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Holstein Kiel 3–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 3.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Udinese 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
FSV Mainz 05 arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.3 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.5 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FSV Mainz 05 51%, draw 22%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%.
Value angle: FSV Mainz 05 to win at 2.25 – 51% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FSV Mainz 0551%fair 1.95 · @2.25
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.40
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai27%fair 3.75 · @2.62
3.88Expected goals
2.34FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.54Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
60%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%
2–27%
1–26%
2–06%
From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 2.3 – 1.5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
FSV Mainz 05
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average
+74%
-11%
Goals conceded vs average
-41%
-17%
Our expected goals here
2.07
1.25
Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FSV Mainz 05 to win✓
51%
1.95
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.75 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
FSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FSV Mainz 05 / FT FSV Mainz 05✗
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.49
–
Form
FSV Mainz 05 – last 6
WWWLWW
25 Jul
vs Holstein Kiel
3–0
W
17 Jul
vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
4–1
W
11 Jul
@ Eisbachtal
10–0
W
16 Apr
@ Strasbourg
0–4
L
9 Apr
vs Strasbourg
2–0
W
22 Mar
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
2–1
W
3.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – last 6
WLWDLW
28 Jul
@ Udinese
2–1
W
13 Jul
@ Sigma Olomouc
0–2
L
6 May
vs Al Nasr
2–1
W
29 Apr
vs Khorfakkan
3–3
D
21 Apr
@ Machida Zelvia
0–1
L
14 Apr
@ Tractor Sazi
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FSV Mainz 05 and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 27%.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our predicted score is FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Friday 31 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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