Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultModena to win ✓66% · @1.67
Double chanceModena or draw ✓90% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.74
Modena vs Empoli preview and prediction
The match
Empoli travel to Alberto Braglia in the Serie B on Sunday 20 September (18:30 WAT) to face Modena. Modena are 2nd with 23 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Empoli sit 19th on 9 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Modena's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Sudtirol 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Empoli's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Arezzo 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.6 for Modena and 0.4 for Empoli. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Modena 66%, draw 24%, Empoli 10%.
Safer route: Modena or draw (90%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Modena to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Modena 1–0 Empoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Modena66%fair 1.52 · @1.67
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.60
Empoli10%fair 9.62 · @4.80
2.00Expected goals
1.56Modena xG
0.44Empoli xG
43%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–016%
0–014%
1–19%
3–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Modena 1.6 – 0.4 Empoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Modena to win✓
66%
1.52
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Modena or draw✓
90%
1.12
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Modena / FT Modena✗
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.74
–
Form
Modena – last 6
DLWWLD
12 Sep
@ Sudtirol
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Avellino
0–1
L
28 Aug
@ Cremonese
3–0
W
22 Aug
@ Benevento
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Venezia
2–3
L
8 Aug
vs Vis Pesaro
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Empoli – last 6
LWLWDD
11 Sep
vs Arezzo
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ Carrarese
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Mantova
1–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cremonese
1–0
W
17 Aug
@ Pisa
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Livorno
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Modena and Empoli.
Our pick is Modena to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Modena vs Empoli?
On our numbers Modena have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Empoli 10%.
How many goals will there be in Modena vs Empoli?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Modena vs Empoli?
Our predicted score is Modena 1–0 Empoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Modena vs Empoli?
Modena vs Empoli (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Alberto Braglia.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
