Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Empoli to win @ 3.50 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMantova to win ✓43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.79
Mantova vs Empoli preview and prediction
The match
Empoli travel to Stadio Danilo Martelli in the Serie B on Sunday 30 August (18:00 WAT) to face Mantova. Mantova are 4th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Empoli sit 19th on 9 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Mantova's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Carrarese 2–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Empoli's last 5: WDDDW Most recently they beat Cremonese 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Mantova and 1.0 for Empoli. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mantova 43%, draw 22%, Empoli 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Empoli to win at 3.50 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Mantova 1–1 Empoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mantova43%fair 2.33 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
Empoli35%fair 2.86 · @3.50
2.23Expected goals
1.20Mantova xG
1.04Empoli xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Mantova 1.2 – 1.0 Empoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mantova to win✓
43%
2.33
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mantova / FT Mantova✗
23%
4.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.79
–
Form
Mantova – last 6
WWLWWL
22 Aug
@ Carrarese
2–1
W
16 Aug
@ Lazio
2–0
W
9 Aug
vs Athletic Carpi
0–1
L
6 Aug
@ Legnago Salus
3–1
W
30 Jul
vs Alcione
6–2
W
8 May
@ Frosinone
0–5
L
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Empoli – last 6
WDDDWD
22 Aug
vs Cremonese
1–0
W
17 Aug
@ Pisa
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Livorno
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Spezia
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Virtus Entella
1–0
W
8 May
@ Monza
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mantova and Empoli.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mantova vs Empoli?
On our numbers Mantova have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Empoli 35%.
How many goals will there be in Mantova vs Empoli?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mantova vs Empoli?
Our predicted score is Mantova 1–1 Empoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mantova vs Empoli?
Mantova vs Empoli (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
