Value bet: Varzim to win @ 2.50 – our chance 46% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVarzim to win ✗46% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.18
São João Ver vs Varzim preview and prediction
The match
São João Ver host Varzim in the Liga 3 on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT). São João Ver are 9th with 9 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Varzim sit 6th on 12 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
São João Ver's last 5: DDDLL Most recently they drew with Pacos Ferreira 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Varzim's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Vitória de Sernache 1–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Varzim arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.9 for São João Ver and 1.3 for Varzim. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: São João Ver 30%, draw 24%, Varzim 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Varzim to win at 2.50 – 46% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.84, so there is value in it. Predicted score: São João Ver 1–1 Varzim. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
São João Ver30%fair 3.32 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @2.80
Varzim46%fair 2.18 · @2.50
2.20Expected goals
0.94São João Ver xG
1.26Varzim xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: São João Ver 0.9 – 1.3 Varzim expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Varzim to win✗
46%
2.18
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Varzim / FT Varzim✗
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.18
–
Form
São João Ver – last 6
DDDLLD
13 Sep
@ Pacos Ferreira
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs AD Marco 09
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Florgrade
0–0
D
22 Aug
@ Trofense
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Fafe
1–3
L
9 Aug
@ Leça
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Varzim – last 6
LLLWWW
19 Sep
@ Vitória de Sernache
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Vianense
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Paredes
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Trofense
5–1
W
22 Aug
@ Pacos Ferreira
4–1
W
16 Aug
vs AD Marco 09
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São João Ver and Varzim.
What is the prediction for São João Ver vs Varzim?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win São João Ver vs Varzim?
On our numbers São João Ver have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Varzim 46%.
How many goals will there be in São João Ver vs Varzim?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São João Ver vs Varzim?
Our predicted score is São João Ver 1–1 Varzim, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is São João Ver vs Varzim?
São João Ver vs Varzim (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
