Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFafe to win ✗64% · @1.55
Double chanceFafe or draw ✓84% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.31
Fafe vs Trofense preview and prediction
The match
Trofense travel to Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe in the Liga 3 on Sunday 11 October (16:30 WAT) to face Fafe. Fafe are 4th with 13 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Trofense sit 10th on 5 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Fafe's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Lajense 4–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Trofense's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Leça 1–4 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Fafe arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Fafe and 0.6 for Trofense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fafe 64%, draw 19%, Trofense 16%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Fafe to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Fafe 1–0 Trofense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fafe64%fair 1.56 · @1.55
Draw19%fair 5.17 · @3.40
Trofense16%fair 6.09 · @5.80
2.10Expected goals
1.54Fafe xG
0.56Trofense xG
47%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Fafe 1.5 – 0.6 Trofense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fafe to win✗
64%
1.56
1.55
Double chance
Fafe or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fafe / FT Fafe✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.31
–
Form
Fafe – last 6
WLWDDW
20 Sep
vs Lajense
4–0
W
13 Sep
@ Paredes
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Leça
3–0
W
29 Aug
@ Pacos Ferreira
0–0
D
21 Aug
vs Guimaraes B
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ São João Ver
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Trofense – last 6
LDLWLL
12 Sep
vs Leça
1–4
L
5 Sep
@ Guimaraes B
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Varzim
1–5
L
22 Aug
vs São João Ver
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Vianense
0–2
L
9 Aug
vs Varzim
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fafe and Trofense.
Our pick is Fafe to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Fafe vs Trofense?
On our numbers Fafe have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Trofense 16%.
How many goals will there be in Fafe vs Trofense?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fafe vs Trofense?
Our predicted score is Fafe 1–0 Trofense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Fafe vs Trofense?
Fafe vs Trofense (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
