Value bet: CF Os Belenenses to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCF Os Belenenses to win ✗48% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.64
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses preview and prediction
The match
CF Os Belenenses travel to Estadio Municipal de Mafra in the Liga 3 on Sunday 11 October (11:00 WAT) to face Mafra. Mafra are 5th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while CF Os Belenenses sit 1st on 21 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Mafra's last 5: DLWDL Most recently they drew with Tirsense 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
CF Os Belenenses's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Beira-Mar 2–0 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
CF Os Belenenses arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.2 for Mafra and 1.7 for CF Os Belenenses. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mafra 29%, draw 23%, CF Os Belenenses 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.75.
Value angle: CF Os Belenenses to win at 2.30 – 48% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Mafra 1–1 CF Os Belenenses. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mafra29%fair 3.45 · @2.90
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @2.90
CF Os Belenenses48%fair 2.10 · @2.30
2.90Expected goals
1.24Mafra xG
1.66CF Os Belenenses xG
57%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Mafra 1.2 – 1.7 CF Os Belenenses expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CF Os Belenenses to win✗
48%
2.10
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CF Os Belenenses / FT CF Os Belenenses✗
29%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.64
–
Form
Mafra – last 6
DLWDLD
19 Sep
vs Tirsense
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Oliveirense
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs SC Covilha
1–0
W
29 Aug
@ Atlético Malveira
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Lusitano Évora 1911
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Atlético CP
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
CF Os Belenenses – last 6
WWWWWW
19 Sep
@ Beira-Mar
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs Atlético CP
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Vitória de Sernache
3–1
W
30 Aug
@ Lusitano Évora 1911
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs União Santarém
5–0
W
15 Aug
@ Louletano
3–1
W
2.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mafra and CF Os Belenenses.
What is the prediction for Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?
On our numbers Mafra have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 23% and CF Os Belenenses 48%.
How many goals will there be in Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?
Our predicted score is Mafra 1–1 CF Os Belenenses, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses?
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Mafra.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
