The Liga 3 sees Varzim take on Paredes on Saturday 5 September, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT). Varzim are 6th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Paredes sit 1st on 22 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Varzim's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Trofense 5–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Paredes's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Ermesinde 3–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Varzim and 1.3 for Paredes. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Varzim 42%, draw 24%, Paredes 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.79, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Varzim 1–1 Paredes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Varzim42%fair 2.38 · @2.40
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.80
Paredes34%fair 2.94 · @2.90
2.83Expected goals
1.50Varzim xG
1.33Paredes xG
56%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Varzim 1.5 – 1.3 Paredes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Varzim to win✗
42%
2.38
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Varzim / FT Varzim✗
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.27
–
Form
Varzim – last 6
WWWWWL
29 Aug
vs Trofense
5–1
W
22 Aug
@ Pacos Ferreira
4–1
W
16 Aug
vs AD Marco 09
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Trofense
1–0
W
29 Jul
@ Tirsense
1–0
W
15 Jul
@ Tondela
0–1
L
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Paredes – last 6
WLWWWW
30 Aug
@ Ermesinde
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Leça
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Pacos Ferreira
1–0
W
7 Aug
vs Guimaraes B
3–1
W
1 Aug
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
4–2
W
22 Jul
@ AVS
4–2
W
2.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Varzim and Paredes.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Varzim vs Paredes?
On our numbers Varzim have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Paredes 34%.
How many goals will there be in Varzim vs Paredes?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Varzim vs Paredes?
Our predicted score is Varzim 1–1 Paredes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Varzim vs Paredes?
Varzim vs Paredes (Liga 3) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
