Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
SC Covilha or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.10 – our chance 58% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +79%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓58% · @3.10
Double chanceSC Covilha or draw ✓82% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗11% · fair 8.77
Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha preview and prediction
The match
SC Covilha travel to face Vitória de Sernache in the Liga 3 on Sunday 16 August (17:00 WAT). Vitória de Sernache are 8th with 7 points from 9 games (in the top half), while SC Covilha sit 9th on 7 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Vitória de Sernache's last 5: LDDDD Most recently they lost to Mafra 0–5 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
SC Covilha's last 4: WDWW Most recently they beat União Santarém 2–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
SC Covilha arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Vitória de Sernache and 1.5 for SC Covilha. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 49% and both teams to score at 60%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Draw at 3.10 – 58% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was SC Covilha or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Vitória de Sernache 1–1 SC Covilha. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vitória de Sernache18%fair 5.54 · @3.00
Draw58%fair 1.73 · @3.10
SC Covilha24%fair 4.15 · @2.30
2.94Expected goals
1.40Vitória de Sernache xG
1.54SC Covilha xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Vitória de Sernache 1.4 – 1.5 SC Covilha expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
58%
1.73
3.10 ▲
Double chance
SC Covilha or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SC Covilha / FT SC Covilha✗
24%
4.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
11%
8.77
–
Form
Vitória de Sernache – last 6
LDDDDW
8 Aug
@ Mafra
0–5
L
10 Jun
@ Leça
1–1
D
31 May
vs Louletano
1–1
D
17 May
vs Oliveira Hospital
0–0
D
25 Mar
vs Benfica Castelo Branco
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Peniche
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
SC Covilha – last 4
WDWW
8 Aug
vs União Santarém
2–0
W
1 May
vs Amora
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Caldas
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Amora
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitória de Sernache and SC Covilha.
What is the prediction for Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha?
Our pick is SC Covilha or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha?
On our numbers Vitória de Sernache have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 58% and SC Covilha 24%.
How many goals will there be in Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha?
Our predicted score is Vitória de Sernache 1–1 SC Covilha, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha?
Vitória de Sernache vs SC Covilha (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
