Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Varzim to win @ 1.77 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVarzim to win ✓61% · @1.77
Double chanceVarzim or draw ✓83% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.81
Varzim vs AD Marco 09 preview and prediction
The match
Varzim host AD Marco 09 in the Liga 3 on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT). Varzim are 6th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while AD Marco 09 sit 3rd on 14 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Varzim's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Trofense 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AD Marco 09's last 5: WDLDD Most recently they beat Pacos Ferreira 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Varzim and 0.6 for AD Marco 09. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Varzim 61%, draw 22%, AD Marco 09 17%.
Safer route: Varzim or draw (83%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Varzim to win at 1.77 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Varzim 1–0 AD Marco 09. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Varzim61%fair 1.64 · @1.77
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.25
AD Marco 0917%fair 6.05 · @4.40
2.21Expected goals
1.56Varzim xG
0.64AD Marco 09 xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Varzim 1.6 – 0.6 AD Marco 09 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Varzim to win✓
61%
1.64
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Varzim or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Varzim / FT Varzim✓
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.81
–
Form
Varzim – last 5
WWLLL
9 Aug
@ Trofense
1–0
W
29 Jul
@ Tirsense
1–0
W
15 Jul
@ Tondela
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Mafra
0–2
L
15 Feb
@ Mafra
0–1
L
0.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
AD Marco 09 – last 6
WDLDDW
9 Aug
vs Pacos Ferreira
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Cinfães
1–1
D
15 Jul
@ União de Leiria
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Fafe
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Sanjoanense
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs São João Ver
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Varzim and AD Marco 09.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Varzim vs AD Marco 09?
On our numbers Varzim have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AD Marco 09 17%.
How many goals will there be in Varzim vs AD Marco 09?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Varzim vs AD Marco 09?
Our predicted score is Varzim 1–0 AD Marco 09, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Varzim vs AD Marco 09?
Varzim vs AD Marco 09 (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
