Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 56% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuimaraes B to win ✓61% · @1.73
Double chanceGuimaraes B or draw ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.15
Guimaraes B vs Leça preview and prediction
The match
Guimaraes B host Leça in the Liga 3 on Saturday 15 August, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Academia Vitoria SC. Guimaraes B are 5th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Leça sit 2nd on 14 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Guimaraes B's last 5: LWLDW Most recently they lost to Paredes 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Leça's last 5: DDLDW Most recently they drew with São João Ver 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Guimaraes B and 0.8 for Leça. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Guimaraes B 61%, draw 24%, Leça 15%.
Safer route: Guimaraes B or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.90 – 56% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Guimaraes B 2–0 Leça. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guimaraes B61%fair 1.63 · @1.73
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.35
Leça15%fair 6.83 · @4.40
2.74Expected goals
1.91Guimaraes B xG
0.84Leça xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Guimaraes B 1.9 – 0.8 Leça expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guimaraes B to win✓
61%
1.63
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Guimaraes B or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.90 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.25
Half-time result
Guimaraes B ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guimaraes B / FT Guimaraes B✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.15
–
Form
Guimaraes B – last 6
LWLDWL
7 Aug
@ Paredes
1–3
L
25 Jul
@ Chaves
3–2
W
3 May
vs Mafra
0–2
L
19 Apr
vs União Santarém
1–1
D
4 Apr
vs Academica
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Amarante
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leça – last 6
DDLDWL
9 Aug
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
29 Jul
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–0
D
15 Jul
@ Santa Clara
0–4
L
10 Jun
vs Vitória de Sernache
1–1
D
31 May
vs Bragança
1–0
W
22 May
@ Rebordosa
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guimaraes B and Leça.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Guimaraes B vs Leça?
On our numbers Guimaraes B have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Leça 15%.
How many goals will there be in Guimaraes B vs Leça?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guimaraes B vs Leça?
Our predicted score is Guimaraes B 2–0 Leça, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Guimaraes B vs Leça?
Guimaraes B vs Leça (Liga 3) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Academia Vitoria SC.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
