Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: Trofense to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTrofense to win ✗40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.85
Trofense vs Varzim preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Trofense take on Varzim on Sunday 9 August, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT). Trofense are 10th with 5 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Varzim sit 6th on 12 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Trofense's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with AVS 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Varzim's last 4: WLLL Most recently they beat Tirsense 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Trofense and 1.0 for Varzim. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Trofense 40%, draw 25%, Varzim 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Trofense to win at 2.75 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Trofense 1–1 Varzim. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Trofense40%fair 2.49 · @2.75
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.00
Varzim35%fair 2.89 · @2.50
2.21Expected goals
1.16Trofense xG
1.05Varzim xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Trofense 1.2 – 1.0 Varzim expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Trofense to win✗
40%
2.49
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Trofense / FT Trofense✗
22%
4.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.85
–
Form
Trofense – last 6
DDLWLD
31 Jul
@ AVS
1–1
D
1 May
vs Amarante
0–0
D
3 Apr
vs CF Os Belenenses
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Guimaraes B
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Amarante
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Mafra
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Varzim – last 4
WLLL
29 Jul
@ Tirsense
1–0
W
15 Jul
@ Tondela
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Mafra
0–2
L
15 Feb
@ Mafra
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Trofense and Varzim.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Trofense vs Varzim?
On our numbers Trofense have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Varzim 35%.
How many goals will there be in Trofense vs Varzim?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Trofense vs Varzim?
Our predicted score is Trofense 1–1 Varzim, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Trofense vs Varzim?
Trofense vs Varzim (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
