Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 55% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +76%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓55% · @3.20
Double chanceLeça or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓13% · fair 7.82
Leça vs São João Ver preview and prediction
The match
São João Ver travel to Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube in the Liga 3 on Sunday 9 August (17:30 WAT) to face Leça. Leça are 2nd with 14 points from 9 games (in the top four), while São João Ver sit 9th on 9 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Leça's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with Lusitânia Lourosa 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
São João Ver's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Tondela 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Leça and 1.2 for São João Ver. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leça 27%, draw 55%, São João Ver 18%.
Safer route: Leça or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Draw at 3.20 – 55% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Leça or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Leça 1–1 São João Ver. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leça27%fair 3.70 · @2.10
Draw55%fair 1.82 · @3.20
São João Ver18%fair 5.52 · @3.25
2.49Expected goals
1.34Leça xG
1.15São João Ver xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–19%
0–08%
2–07%
From our goals model: Leça 1.3 – 1.2 São João Ver expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
55%
1.82
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Leça or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leça / FT Leça✗
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✓
13%
7.82
–
Form
Leça – last 6
DLDWLW
29 Jul
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–0
D
15 Jul
@ Santa Clara
0–4
L
10 Jun
vs Vitória de Sernache
1–1
D
31 May
vs Bragança
1–0
W
22 May
@ Rebordosa
1–2
L
17 May
@ Vianense
4–3
W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
São João Ver – last 6
DLWWDL
29 Jul
@ Tondela
1–1
D
3 Jul
@ SC Braga
0–1
L
28 Apr
@ Fafe
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Paredes
3–1
W
8 Mar
vs SC Braga B
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ AD Marco 09
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leça and São João Ver.
Our pick is Leça or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leça vs São João Ver?
On our numbers Leça have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 55% and São João Ver 18%.
How many goals will there be in Leça vs São João Ver?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leça vs São João Ver?
Our predicted score is Leça 1–1 São João Ver, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Leça vs São João Ver?
Leça vs São João Ver (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
