AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Pacos Ferreira or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.33 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.33Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 55% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +75%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗55% · @3.20
Double chancePacos Ferreira or draw ✗81% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.82
AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira preview and prediction
The match
AD Marco 09 host Pacos Ferreira in the Liga 3 on Sunday 9 August, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Municipal de Marco de Canaveses. AD Marco 09 are 3rd with 14 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Pacos Ferreira sit 8th on 11 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
AD Marco 09's last 5: DLDDW Most recently they drew with Cinfães 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Pacos Ferreira's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Felgueiras 1932 0–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for AD Marco 09 and 1.3 for Pacos Ferreira. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: AD Marco 09 19%, draw 55%, Pacos Ferreira 27%.
Safer route: Pacos Ferreira or draw (81%) at 1.33.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Draw at 3.20 – 55% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pacos Ferreira or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AD Marco 09 1–1 Pacos Ferreira. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AD Marco 0919%fair 5.38 · @3.10
Draw55%fair 1.82 · @3.20
Pacos Ferreira27%fair 3.76 · @2.15
2.49Expected goals
1.16AD Marco 09 xG
1.33Pacos Ferreira xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: AD Marco 09 1.2 – 1.3 Pacos Ferreira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
55%
1.82
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Pacos Ferreira or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.33 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pacos Ferreira / FT Pacos Ferreira✗
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.82
–
Form
AD Marco 09 – last 6
DLDDWL
1 Aug
@ Cinfães
1–1
D
15 Jul
@ União de Leiria
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Fafe
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Sanjoanense
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs São João Ver
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ SC Braga B
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Pacos Ferreira – last 6
DLWLLW
29 Jul
vs Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
25 Jul
vs AVS
0–2
L
17 May
vs Penafiel
2–1
W
3 May
vs Feirense
1–2
L
26 Apr
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
0–2
L
18 Apr
vs Chaves
4–3
W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Marco 09 and Pacos Ferreira.
What is the prediction for AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our pick is Pacos Ferreira or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
On our numbers AD Marco 09 have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 55% and Pacos Ferreira 27%.
How many goals will there be in AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our predicted score is AD Marco 09 1–1 Pacos Ferreira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira?
AD Marco 09 vs Pacos Ferreira (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Marco de Canaveses.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
