Value bet: Fafe to win @ 1.77 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFafe to win ✗60% · @1.77
Double chanceEither team to win ✗81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.60
Fafe vs Vianense preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Fafe take on Vianense on Sunday 9 August, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe. Fafe are 4th with 13 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Vianense sit 7th on 11 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Fafe's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Maria da Fonte 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vianense's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to AVS 0–3 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vianense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Fafe and 0.8 for Vianense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fafe 60%, draw 19%, Vianense 20%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Fafe to win at 1.77 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Fafe 1–0 Vianense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fafe60%fair 1.65 · @1.77
Draw19%fair 5.17 · @3.45
Vianense20%fair 4.95 · @4.10
2.58Expected goals
1.73Fafe xG
0.85Vianense xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Fafe 1.7 – 0.8 Vianense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fafe to win✗
60%
1.65
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fafe / FT Fafe✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.60
–
Form
Fafe – last 6
WLWLLW
31 Jul
vs Maria da Fonte
2–0
W
15 Jul
@ Chaves
1–4
L
11 Jul
@ Vizela
3–0
W
28 Apr
vs São João Ver
1–2
L
23 Apr
@ Torreense
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Paredes
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vianense – last 6
LWLWWW
29 Jul
@ AVS
0–3
L
31 May
vs Rebordosa
2–0
W
17 May
vs Leça
3–4
L
22 Mar
@ Ribeira Brava
5–1
W
15 Mar
vs Celoricense
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Vilaverdense
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fafe and Vianense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Fafe vs Vianense?
On our numbers Fafe have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Vianense 20%.
How many goals will there be in Fafe vs Vianense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fafe vs Vianense?
Our predicted score is Fafe 1–0 Vianense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Fafe vs Vianense?
Fafe vs Vianense (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
