Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.91
Leek Town vs Ashton United preview and prediction
The match
The Non League Premier Northern sees Leek Town take on Ashton United on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Leek Town are 18th with 17 points from 17 games (in the bottom half), while Ashton United sit 17th on 17 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leek Town's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Rylands 3–3 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Ashton United's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with Quorn 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Leek Town arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.7 for Leek Town and 1.4 for Ashton United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 52% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leek Town 47%, draw 19%, Ashton United 33%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Leek Town 2–1 Ashton United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leek Town47%fair 2.12 · @2.20
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @3.60
Ashton United33%fair 2.99 · @2.62
3.05Expected goals
1.68Leek Town xG
1.37Ashton United xG
52%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Leek Town 1.7 – 1.4 Ashton United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leek Town to win✗
47%
2.12
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.56
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leek Town / FT Leek Town✗
27%
3.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.91
–
Form
Leek Town – last 6
DWWLLW
6 Oct
vs Rylands
3–3
D
26 Sep
@ Worcester City
2–0
W
22 Sep
vs Hyde United
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Bromsgrove Sporting
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Redcar Athletic
2–3
L
5 Sep
@ Sporting Khalsa
5–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Ashton United – last 6
DDLLWL
6 Oct
@ Quorn
2–2
D
26 Sep
@ Warrington Town
2–2
D
19 Sep
@ Buxton
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Cleethorpes Town
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ Whitby Town
5–2
W
31 Aug
@ Curzon Ashton
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leek Town and Ashton United.
What is the prediction for Leek Town vs Ashton United?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Leek Town vs Ashton United?
On our numbers Leek Town have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ashton United 33%.
How many goals will there be in Leek Town vs Ashton United?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leek Town vs Ashton United?
Our predicted score is Leek Town 2–1 Ashton United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Leek Town vs Ashton United?
Leek Town vs Ashton United (Non League Premier Northern) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
