Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBury to win ✓61% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · fair 1.98
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.14
Alfreton Town vs Bury preview and prediction
The match
The Non League Premier Northern sees Alfreton Town take on Bury on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Alfreton Town are 11th with 23 points from 18 games (in the top half), while Bury sit 7th on 29 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Alfreton Town's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat United of Manchester 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Bury's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Stockton Town 0–1 away. They are scoring freely – 3.7 goals a game.
Bury arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.0 for Alfreton Town and 1.8 for Bury. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alfreton Town 27%, draw 12%, Bury 61%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bury to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alfreton Town 0–1 Bury. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alfreton Town27%fair 3.72 · @3.00
Draw12%fair 8.13 · @3.70
Bury61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
2.79Expected goals
1.01Alfreton Town xG
1.78Bury xG
50%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–210%
1–06%
0–06%
From our goals model: Alfreton Town 1.0 – 1.8 Bury expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bury to win✓
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
88%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bury / FT Bury✓
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.14
–
Form
Alfreton Town – last 6
WLWWLL
6 Oct
vs United of Manchester
1–0
W
3 Oct
@ Redcar Athletic
1–3
L
29 Sep
vs Guiseley AFC
1–0
W
26 Sep
vs Shifnal Town FC
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Bamber Bridge
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Stratford Town
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Bury – last 6
LWDWWW
6 Oct
@ Stockton Town
0–1
L
3 Oct
vs Bromsgrove Sporting
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Gainsborough Trinity
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Workington
5–1
W
12 Sep
vs AFC Emley
4–0
W
5 Sep
vs Wythenshawe Amateurs
8–0
W
3.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alfreton Town and Bury.
Our pick is Bury to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Alfreton Town vs Bury?
On our numbers Alfreton Town have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Bury 61%.
How many goals will there be in Alfreton Town vs Bury?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alfreton Town vs Bury?
Our predicted score is Alfreton Town 0–1 Bury, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alfreton Town vs Bury?
Alfreton Town vs Bury (Non League Premier Northern) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
