Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Bury to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBury to win ✗65% · @1.73
Double chanceBury or draw ✗88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.41
Stockton Town vs Bury preview and prediction
The match
The Non League Premier Northern sees Stockton Town take on Bury on Tuesday 6 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT). Stockton Town are 19th with 15 points from 17 games (in the bottom half), while Bury sit 10th on 26 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Stockton Town's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to Hyde United 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Bury's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Bromsgrove Sporting 2–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.8 goals a game.
Bury arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 0.9 for Stockton Town and 2.2 for Bury. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Stockton Town 12%, draw 23%, Bury 65%.
Safer route: Bury or draw (88%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Bury to win at 1.73 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bury or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Stockton Town 0–2 Bury. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Stockton Town12%fair 8.29 · @3.75
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.50
Bury65%fair 1.55 · @1.73
3.15Expected goals
0.92Stockton Town xG
2.23Bury xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
1–210%
0–110%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Stockton Town 0.9 – 2.2 Bury expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bury to win✗
65%
1.55
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Bury or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Bury ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bury / FT Bury✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.41
–
Form
Stockton Town – last 6
LLWDDL
3 Oct
@ Hyde United
1–2
L
26 Sep
@ Rylands
1–3
L
19 Sep
vs Bamber Bridge
5–2
W
12 Sep
@ Rylands
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Guiseley AFC
2–2
D
31 Aug
vs Redcar Athletic
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bury – last 6
WDWWWL
3 Oct
vs Bromsgrove Sporting
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Gainsborough Trinity
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Workington
5–1
W
12 Sep
vs AFC Emley
4–0
W
5 Sep
vs Wythenshawe Amateurs
8–0
W
31 Aug
@ Hyde United
1–2
L
3.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stockton Town and Bury.
Our pick is Bury or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Stockton Town vs Bury?
On our numbers Stockton Town have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bury 65%.
How many goals will there be in Stockton Town vs Bury?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stockton Town vs Bury?
Our predicted score is Stockton Town 0–2 Bury, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Stockton Town vs Bury?
Stockton Town vs Bury (Non League Premier Northern) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
