Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Montrose to win @ 1.70 – our chance 66% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMontrose to win ✗66% · @1.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓73% · @1.30
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.10
Kelty Hearts vs Montrose preview and prediction
The match
Montrose travel to New Central Park in the Challenge Cup on Saturday 26 September (15:00 WAT) to face Kelty Hearts.
Form guide
Kelty Hearts's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Hearts U21 3–5 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Montrose's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Formartine United 2–3 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Montrose arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 March 2026, finished Montrose 1–1 Kelty Hearts.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.4 goals: 1.5 for Kelty Hearts and 2.9 for Montrose. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score in 73% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Montrose to win at 1.70 – 66% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Kelty Hearts 1–2 Montrose. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kelty Hearts19%fair 5.25 · @3.50
Draw15%fair 6.69 · @4.20
Montrose66%fair 1.52 · @1.70
4.44Expected goals
1.55Kelty Hearts xG
2.89Montrose xG
73%Both score
79%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–37%
2–26%
2–36%
1–45%
1–15%
From our goals model: Kelty Hearts 1.5 – 2.9 Montrose expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?
On our numbers Kelty Hearts have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Montrose 66%.
How many goals will there be in Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?
We expect about 4.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?
Our predicted score is Kelty Hearts 1–2 Montrose, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.4 goals in total.
When is Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?
Kelty Hearts vs Montrose (Challenge Cup) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at New Central Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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