Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 58% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +30%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlloa Athletic to win ✗70% · @1.08
Double chanceAlloa Athletic or draw ✓88% · fair 1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @2.25
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓72% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.78
Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers preview and prediction
The match
Alloa Athletic host Gala Fairydean Rovers in the Challenge Cup on Saturday 26 September, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Recreation Park.
Form guide
Alloa Athletic's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Hibernian U21 4–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Gala Fairydean Rovers's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Spartans 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Alloa Athletic arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.6 for Alloa Athletic and 1.0 for Gala Fairydean Rovers. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 58% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Alloa Athletic 2–1 Gala Fairydean Rovers. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alloa Athletic70%fair 1.43 · @1.08
Draw18%fair 5.64 · @10.00
Gala Fairydean Rovers12%fair 8.17 · @15.00
3.61Expected goals
2.58Alloa Athletic xG
1.03Gala Fairydean Rovers xG
58%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Alloa Athletic 2.6 – 1.0 Gala Fairydean Rovers expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alloa Athletic to win✗
70%
1.43
1.08
Double chance
Alloa Athletic or draw✓
88%
1.14
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.07
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.67
Half-time result
Alloa Athletic ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alloa Athletic / FT Alloa Athletic✗
48%
2.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.78
–
Form
Alloa Athletic – last 6
WLLDDD
22 Sep
vs Hibernian U21
4–1
W
19 Sep
vs East Kilbride
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Airdrie United
0–1
L
8 Sep
@ Clydebank
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Cove Rangers
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Peterhead
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Gala Fairydean Rovers – last 6
DLLLLL
22 Sep
vs Spartans
0–0
D
19 Sep
@ Tranent Juniors
1–2
L
16 Sep
vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Musselburgh Athletic
0–2
L
8 Sep
vs Hearts U21
1–6
L
29 Aug
vs Lochee United
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alloa Athletic and Gala Fairydean Rovers.
What is the prediction for Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers?
On our numbers Alloa Athletic have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Gala Fairydean Rovers 12%.
How many goals will there be in Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers?
Our predicted score is Alloa Athletic 2–1 Gala Fairydean Rovers, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers?
Alloa Athletic vs Gala Fairydean Rovers (Challenge Cup) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Recreation Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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