Value bet: Treze to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSao Jose to win ✓45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.12
Sao Jose vs Treze preview and prediction
The match
Sao Jose host Treze in the Serie D on Saturday 18 July, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Francisco Novelletto Neto.
Form guide
Sao Jose's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Portuguesa RJ 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Treze's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat CRAC 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Sao Jose arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Sao Jose and 0.9 for Treze. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Jose 45%, draw 25%, Treze 30%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Treze to win at 3.60 – 30% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Sao Jose 1–0 Treze. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Jose45%fair 2.22 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @2.62
Treze30%fair 3.36 · @3.60
2.18Expected goals
1.24Sao Jose xG
0.94Treze xG
49%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Sao Jose 1.2 – 0.9 Treze expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Jose to win✓
45%
2.22
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Jose / FT Sao Jose✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.12
–
Form
Sao Jose – last 6
DWDDWW
12 Jul
@ Portuguesa RJ
0–0
D
4 Jul
vs Portuguesa RJ
1–0
W
27 Jun
@ Santa Catarina
1–1
D
21 Jun
vs Santa Catarina
1–1
D
7 Jun
@ Blumenau
1–0
W
31 May
vs Independiente FSJ
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Treze – last 6
WLDWLD
12 Jul
vs CRAC
1–0
W
4 Jul
@ CRAC
1–2
L
28 Jun
vs Jacuipense
0–0
D
21 Jun
@ Jacuipense
3–1
W
14 Jun
@ Retrô
0–3
L
6 Jun
@ Decisão
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Jose and Treze.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Sao Jose vs Treze?
On our numbers Sao Jose have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Treze 30%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Jose vs Treze?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Jose vs Treze?
Our predicted score is Sao Jose 1–0 Treze, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Sao Jose vs Treze?
Sao Jose vs Treze (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Francisco Novelletto Neto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil · Francisco Novelletto Neto
Cianorte0
ASA1
Nacional AM1
Iguatu1
Uberlandia2
Portuguesa0
Goiatuba EC3
Ferroviario0
Luverdense0
ABC0