EFL Trophy · England · Sixfields Stadium
Northampton
Gillingham
Northampton vs Gillingham prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22
Value bet: Northampton to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Northampton 2.3 – 1.4 Gillingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Northampton hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 25% for Gillingham.
Northampton have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Gillingham have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.7 goals (2.3 for Northampton, 1.4 for Gillingham). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 3–1 (7%).
In their last 1 meeting, Northampton have won 0, Gillingham have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.21. For a bigger price, Northampton to win at 1.95 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Northampton to win | 58% | 1.71 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 84% | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 63% | 1.60 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.21 | 1.22 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 1.59 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | 1.40 |
| Half-time result | Northampton ahead at half-time | 44% | 2.30 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Northampton / FT Northampton | 36% | 2.74 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 | 9% | 10.92 | – |
Form
Northampton – last 6
| 7 Nov | @ York | 0–4 | L |
| 3 Nov | vs Oldham | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Oct | @ Accrington ST | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Oct | vs Colchester | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Tranmere | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Grimsby | 2–0 | W |
Gillingham – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs Barrow | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Oct | @ Shrewsbury | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Oct | vs Grimsby | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Oct | vs Port Vale | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | @ Accrington ST | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Brighton U21 | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
| 29 Aug 2026 | Gillingham v Northampton | 1–1 |
More EFL Trophy predictions
Crewe
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O1.5Over 1.5 goals
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Mansfield Town
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O2.5Over 2.5 goals
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Stockport County
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O2.5Over 2.5 goals
64%@1.57
Burton Albion
Notts County
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
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Grimsby
Nottingham Forest U21
1Grimsby to win
71%@1.38
Huddersfield
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75%@1.28
Oxford United
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O2.5Over 2.5 goals
70%@1.40
Leicester
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O2.5Over 2.5 goals
77%@1.33
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Northampton vs Gillingham?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Northampton vs Gillingham?
On our numbers Northampton have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Gillingham 25%.
How many goals will there be in Northampton vs Gillingham?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Northampton vs Gillingham?
Northampton vs Gillingham (EFL Trophy) kicks off on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Sixfields Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.