EFL Trophy · England · Pirelli Stadium
Burton Albion
Notts County
Burton Albion vs Notts County prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20
Value bet: Notts County to win @ 2.90 – our chance 43% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Burton Albion 1.4 – 1.6 Notts County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Notts County shade it despite being away from home – 43% to win, against 36% for Burton Albion.
Burton Albion have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Notts County have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.4 for Burton Albion, 1.6 for Notts County). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Burton Albion have won 0, Notts County have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.27. For a bigger price, Notts County to win at 2.90 is our value angle (43% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Notts County to win | 43% | 2.32 | 2.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 79% | 1.26 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 64% | 1.57 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.77 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.54 | 1.44 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 40% | 2.51 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Notts County / FT Notts County | 25% | 4.07 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 | 9% | 11.33 | – |
Form
Burton Albion – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Oct | @ Wycombe | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs Leyton Orient | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Bradford | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | @ Peterborough | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Doncaster | 0–1 | L |
Notts County – last 6
| 7 Nov | @ Altrincham | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Oct | @ Mansfield Town | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Oct | vs Stockport County | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | vs Sheffield Wednesday | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | @ Wycombe | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Nottingham Forest U21 | 5–1 | W |
Head to head
| 29 Aug 2026 | Notts County v Burton Albion | 2–1 |
More EFL Trophy predictions
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Grimsby
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1Grimsby to win
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Stevenage
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Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Burton Albion vs Notts County?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Burton Albion vs Notts County?
On our numbers Burton Albion have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Notts County 43%.
How many goals will there be in Burton Albion vs Notts County?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Burton Albion vs Notts County?
Burton Albion vs Notts County (EFL Trophy) kicks off on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Pirelli Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.