EFL Trophy · England · County Ground
Swindon Town vs Newport County prediction & analysis
Swindon Town or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Swindon Town to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Swindon Town 2.0 – 1.0 Newport County expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Swindon Town hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 19% for Newport County.
Swindon Town have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0 per game. Newport County have 3 points from their last 6 (0W 3D 3L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (2.0 for Swindon Town, 1.0 for Newport County). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Swindon Town or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.23. For a bigger price, Swindon Town to win at 1.91 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Swindon Town to win ✗ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Swindon Town or draw ✗ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Half-time result | Swindon Town ahead at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.33 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Swindon Town / FT Swindon Town ✗ | 37% | 2.71 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.06 | – |
Form
Swindon Town – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Salford City | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sep | vs Crystal Palace U21 | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ York | 0–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Colchester | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Sep | vs Port Vale | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Oldham | 0–3 | L |
Newport County – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Accrington ST | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Fleetwood Town | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | @ Northampton | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Sep | @ Salford City | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Tranmere | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | @ Bristol Rovers | 3–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Swindon Town and Newport County.
EFL Trophy table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cardiff | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Exeter City | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Newport County | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Arsenal U21 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
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Nottingham Forest U211Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Swindon Town vs Newport County?
Our pick is Swindon Town or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Newport County?
On our numbers Swindon Town have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Newport County 19%.
How many goals will there be in Swindon Town vs Newport County?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Swindon Town vs Newport County?
Swindon Town vs Newport County (EFL Trophy) kicks off on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at County Ground.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.