Value bet: Port Vale to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPort Vale to win ✗40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓74% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–4 ✗4% · fair 25.82
Chesterfield vs Port Vale preview and prediction
The match
The EFL Trophy sees Chesterfield take on Port Vale on Tuesday 22 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Proact Stadium. Chesterfield are 2nd with 4 points from 3 games, while Port Vale sit 1st on 7 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Chesterfield's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat York 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Port Vale's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Walsall 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Chesterfield arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 8.0 goals: 3.9 for Chesterfield and 4.1 for Port Vale. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 99% and both teams to score at 74%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chesterfield 37%, draw 23%, Port Vale 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (74%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Port Vale to win at 2.75 – 40% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 74% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.36, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Chesterfield 3–4 Port Vale. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chesterfield37%fair 2.71 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.30
Port Vale40%fair 2.48 · @2.75
8.00Expected goals
3.94Chesterfield xG
4.06Port Vale xG
74%Both score
99%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–44%
3–34%
4–44%
4–34%
3–53%
4–53%
From our goals model: Chesterfield 3.9 – 4.1 Port Vale expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Port Vale to win✗
40%
2.48
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
74%
1.36
1.50 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
100%
1.00
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
99%
1.01
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
96%
1.04
–
Half-time result
Port Vale ahead at half-time✓
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Port Vale / FT Port Vale✗
29%
3.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–4✗
4%
25.82
–
Form
Chesterfield – last 6
WWWDDL
19 Sep
vs York
2–0
W
15 Sep
vs Manchester City U21
5–3
W
12 Sep
@ Oldham
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Barnet
3–3
D
1 Sep
vs Gillingham
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Rotherham
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Port Vale – last 6
LWLLDD
19 Sep
@ Walsall
0–2
L
12 Sep
vs Exeter City
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ Salford City
0–1
L
1 Sep
@ Swindon Town
1–3
L
29 Aug
vs Crewe
0–0
D
22 Aug
vs Tranmere
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chesterfield and Port Vale.
What is the prediction for Chesterfield vs Port Vale?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Port Vale?
On our numbers Chesterfield have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Port Vale 40%.
How many goals will there be in Chesterfield vs Port Vale?
We expect about 8.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 99% likely and both teams score 74% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chesterfield vs Port Vale?
Our predicted score is Chesterfield 3–4 Port Vale, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 8.0 goals in total.
When is Chesterfield vs Port Vale?
Chesterfield vs Port Vale (EFL Trophy) kicks off on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Proact Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Salford City1
Sheffield Wednesday2
Sunderland U213
Wigan3
Blackpool2
Crewe4
Aston Villa U211
York1
Rotherham1
Tranmere1
Shrewsbury0
Burton Albion1
Nottingham Forest U211
Notts County2
Grimsby1