Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultOxford City to win ✓59% · @1.70
Double chanceOxford City or draw ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.99
Oxford City vs Merthyr Town preview and prediction
The match
Merthyr Town travel to RAW Charging Stadium in the National League North on Tuesday 27 October (20:45 WAT) to face Oxford City. Oxford City are 3rd with 28 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Merthyr Town sit 17th on 19 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Oxford City's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Marine 1–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Merthyr Town's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Morecambe 1–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Oxford City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 April 2026, finished Merthyr Town 1–1 Oxford City.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Oxford City and 0.8 for Merthyr Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Oxford City 59%, draw 22%, Merthyr Town 19%.
Safer route: Oxford City or draw (81%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Oxford City or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Oxford City 1–0 Merthyr Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Oxford City59%fair 1.70 · @1.70
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.60
Merthyr Town19%fair 5.17 · @4.20
2.44Expected goals
1.64Oxford City xG
0.80Merthyr Town xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Oxford City 1.6 – 0.8 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?
Our pick is Oxford City or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?
On our numbers Oxford City have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Merthyr Town 19%.
How many goals will there be in Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?
Our predicted score is Oxford City 1–0 Merthyr Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Oxford City vs Merthyr Town?
Oxford City vs Merthyr Town (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at RAW Charging Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
