Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Spalding United to win @ 2.25 – our chance 47% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpalding United to win ✗47% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.82
Chorley vs Spalding United preview and prediction
The match
Spalding United travel to Victory Park in the National League North on Saturday 26 September (15:00 WAT) to face Chorley. Chorley are 13th with 20 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Spalding United sit 12th on 21 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Chorley's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Rylands 1–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Spalding United's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Hanley Town 2–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Spalding United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.3 for Chorley and 1.6 for Spalding United. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chorley 32%, draw 20%, Spalding United 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Spalding United to win at 2.25 – 47% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Chorley 1–1 Spalding United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chorley32%fair 3.10 · @2.62
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.50
Spalding United47%fair 2.11 · @2.25
2.91Expected goals
1.28Chorley xG
1.63Spalding United xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
2–17%
0–27%
1–07%
From our goals model: Chorley 1.3 – 1.6 Spalding United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spalding United to win✗
47%
2.11
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.53
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spalding United / FT Spalding United✗
27%
3.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.82
–
Form
Chorley – last 6
WLWLDD
19 Sep
@ Rylands
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ King's Lynn Town
0–2
L
8 Sep
vs Darlington 1883
5–2
W
5 Sep
@ Oxford City
0–4
L
31 Aug
vs Brackley Town
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Merthyr Town
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Spalding United – last 6
WWWWDW
19 Sep
vs Hanley Town
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Bedford Town
2–1
W
8 Sep
@ Spennymoor Town
3–1
W
5 Sep
vs Southport
2–0
W
31 Aug
@ South Shields
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Worksop Town
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chorley and Spalding United.
What is the prediction for Chorley vs Spalding United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Chorley vs Spalding United?
On our numbers Chorley have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Spalding United 47%.
How many goals will there be in Chorley vs Spalding United?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chorley vs Spalding United?
Our predicted score is Chorley 1–1 Spalding United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Chorley vs Spalding United?
Chorley vs Spalding United (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Victory Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
