National League North · England · Penydarren ParkMerthyr Town vs Marine prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.80 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.3 – 1.0 Marine expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Merthyr Town hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 33% for Marine.
Merthyr Town have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Marine have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.3 for Merthyr Town, 1.0 for Marine). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Merthyr Town have won 1, Marine have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 55% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is close to our fair price of 1.80.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Merthyr Town to win ✗ | 45% | 2.23 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.80 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.50 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Merthyr Town / FT Merthyr Town ✗ | 24% | 4.18 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.78 | – |
Form
Merthyr Town – last 6
| 22 Sep | @ Truro City | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Truro City | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Scarborough Athletic | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Sep | @ Chester | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Macclesfield | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Buxton | 1–2 | L |
Marine – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Radcliffe | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Darlington 1883 | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | @ South Shields | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Worksop Town | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | @ Harborough Town | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Radcliffe | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 14 Apr 2026 | Marine v Merthyr Town | 1–3 |
National League North table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Shields | 15 | +10 | 32 |
| 2 |  Hereford | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 3 |  Oxford City | 14 | +15 | 27 |
| 4 |  Macclesfield | 13 | +10 | 27 |
| 5 |  Hednesford Town | 16 | +8 | 27 |
| 6 |  King's Lynn Town | 16 | +6 | 27 |
| 7 |  Buxton | 16 | +5 | 27 |
| 8 |  Chester | 15 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 |  Morecambe | 15 | +5 | 23 |
| 10 |  Bedford Town | 14 | -2 | 22 |
| 11 |  AFC Telford United | 16 | -4 | 22 |
| 12 |  Spalding United | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 13 |  Chorley | 15 | -1 | 20 |
| 14 |  Worksop Town | 15 | -1 | 20 |
| 15 |  Hebburn Town | 15 | -8 | 20 |
| 16 |  Merthyr Town | 16 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Brackley Town | 16 | -9 | 19 |
| 18 |  Harborough Town | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 19 |  Scarborough Athletic | 15 | -1 | 16 |
| 20 |  Marine | 14 | -2 | 16 |
| 21 |  Radcliffe | 15 | -8 | 16 |
| 22 |  Darlington 1883 | 15 | -9 | 11 |
| 23 |  Southport | 15 | -15 | 10 |
| 24 |  Spennymoor Town | 15 | -15 | 10 |
More National League North predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Marine?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Marine?
On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Marine 33%.
How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Marine?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Merthyr Town vs Marine?
Merthyr Town vs Marine (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Penydarren Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.