The National League North sees Merthyr Town take on Chorley on Saturday 29 August, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Merthyr Town are 17th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Chorley sit 13th on 20 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Merthyr Town's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with South Shields 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Chorley's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Scarborough Athletic 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Merthyr Town and 1.4 for Chorley. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 63%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Merthyr Town 39%, draw 22%, Chorley 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Merthyr Town 1–1 Chorley. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Merthyr Town39%fair 2.55 · @2.38
Draw22%fair 4.44 · @3.40
Chorley38%fair 2.62 · @2.45
2.82Expected goals
1.42Merthyr Town xG
1.40Chorley xG
63%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–08%
2–18%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.4 – 1.4 Chorley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Merthyr Town to win✗
39%
2.55
2.38
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.44
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Merthyr Town / FT Merthyr Town✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
8%
11.82
–
Form
Merthyr Town – last 6
DDLWLW
22 Aug
@ South Shields
1–1
D
18 Aug
vs AFC Telford United
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Spennymoor Town
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Hednesford Town
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Worcester City
0–1
L
28 Jul
vs Swansea
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Chorley – last 6
WWLLLL
22 Aug
vs Scarborough Athletic
2–1
W
18 Aug
@ Marine
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ South Shields
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Chester
1–2
L
28 Jul
@ Trafford
1–2
L
25 Jul
vs Accrington ST
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Merthyr Town and Chorley.
What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chorley 38%.
How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
Our predicted score is Merthyr Town 1–1 Chorley, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
Merthyr Town vs Chorley (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
