Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSutton Utd to win ✓40% · @2.33
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.67
Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool preview and prediction
The match
Sutton Utd host Hartlepool in the National League on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 12:30 (WAT) at VBS Community Stadium. Sutton Utd are 11th with 24 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Hartlepool sit 21st on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sutton Utd's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Leicester City U21 0–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Hartlepool's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Aldershot Town 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sutton Utd arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 March 2026, finished Hartlepool 0–2 Sutton Utd.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Sutton Utd and 1.1 for Hartlepool. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 – 52% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.42, above our fair price of 1.38, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sutton Utd 1–1 Hartlepool. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sutton Utd40%fair 2.50 · @2.33
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.55
Hartlepool38%fair 2.65 · @2.60
2.33Expected goals
1.19Sutton Utd xG
1.14Hartlepool xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Sutton Utd 1.2 – 1.1 Hartlepool expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool?
On our numbers Sutton Utd have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Hartlepool 38%.
How many goals will there be in Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool?
Our predicted score is Sutton Utd 1–1 Hartlepool, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool?
Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool (National League) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at VBS Community Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
