Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Carlisle to win @ 1.62 – our chance 67% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCarlisle to win ✓67% · @1.62
Double chanceCarlisle or draw ✓89% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.78
Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch preview and prediction
The match
AFC Hornchurch travel to Brunton Park in the National League on Saturday 22 August (12:30 WAT) to face Carlisle. Carlisle are 8th with 26 points from 16 games (in the top half), while AFC Hornchurch sit 15th on 21 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Carlisle's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Yeovil Town 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
AFC Hornchurch's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Norwich City U21 1–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
AFC Hornchurch arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.2 for Carlisle and 0.9 for AFC Hornchurch. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Carlisle 67%, draw 22%, AFC Hornchurch 11%.
Safer route: Carlisle or draw (89%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Carlisle to win at 1.62 – 67% on our numbers against 62% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Carlisle 2–0 AFC Hornchurch. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Carlisle67%fair 1.49 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.95
AFC Hornchurch11%fair 9.12 · @4.40
3.10Expected goals
2.25Carlisle xG
0.85AFC Hornchurch xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Carlisle 2.2 – 0.9 AFC Hornchurch expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Carlisle to win✓
67%
1.49
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Carlisle or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.44
Half-time result
Carlisle ahead at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Carlisle / FT Carlisle✓
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.78
–
Form
Carlisle – last 6
DLWLWD
15 Aug
@ Yeovil Town
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Worthing
2–3
L
1 Aug
@ Derby County U21
3–0
W
28 Jul
vs Salford City
0–2
L
21 Jul
@ Darlington 1883
4–2
W
3 May
vs Boreham Wood
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
AFC Hornchurch – last 6
LWWWLW
18 Aug
vs Norwich City U21
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Barrow
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Kidderminster Harriers
3–0
W
1 Aug
vs Coventry City U21
2–0
W
28 Jul
@ Enfield Town
2–4
L
25 Jul
vs Tottenham Hotspur U21
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Carlisle and AFC Hornchurch.
What is the prediction for Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?
On our numbers Carlisle have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AFC Hornchurch 11%.
How many goals will there be in Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?
Our predicted score is Carlisle 2–0 AFC Hornchurch, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?
Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch (National League) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Brunton Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
