Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.90 – our chance 54% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +109%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗54% · @3.90
Double chanceMonza or draw ✗79% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.70
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓62% · @1.75
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗9% · fair 11.66
Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis preview and prediction
The match
Monza host Aris Thessalonikis in the Friendlies Clubs on Thursday 30 July, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Monza's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Galatasaray 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Aris Thessalonikis's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Levadiakos 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 1.9 for Monza and 1.8 for Aris Thessalonikis. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Draw at 3.90 – 54% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Monza or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Monza 1–1 Aris Thessalonikis. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monza26%fair 3.88 · @2.10
Draw54%fair 1.87 · @3.90
Aris Thessalonikis21%fair 4.83 · @2.62
3.67Expected goals
1.90Monza xG
1.77Aris Thessalonikis xG
59%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–05%
From our goals model: Monza 1.9 – 1.8 Aris Thessalonikis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
54%
1.87
3.90 ▲
Double chance
Monza or draw✗
79%
1.26
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.75 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
35%
2.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monza / FT Monza✗
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
9%
11.66
–
Form
Monza – last 6
WWLWWD
24 Jul
@ Galatasaray
2–0
W
18 Jul
vs PRO Vercelli
4–3
W
29 May
vs Catanzaro
0–2
L
24 May
@ Catanzaro
2–0
W
19 May
vs Juve Stabia
2–1
W
8 May
vs Empoli
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Aris Thessalonikis – last 6
WWWDLD
17 May
vs Levadiakos
3–0
W
13 May
@ Volos NFC
2–1
W
10 May
vs OFI
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ Levadiakos
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Panathinaikos
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Kifisia
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monza and Aris Thessalonikis.
What is the prediction for Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our pick is Monza or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis?
On our numbers Monza have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 54% and Aris Thessalonikis 21%.
How many goals will there be in Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our predicted score is Monza 1–1 Aris Thessalonikis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Monza vs Aris Thessalonikis (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Thursday 30 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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