Marseille vs Nimes prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Marseille 2.7 – 0.8 Nimes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Marseille are clear favourites at home with a 78% chance of winning, against 7% for Nimes.
Marseille have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 per game. Nimes have 0 points from their last 2 (0W 0D 2L), averaging 0.5 scored and 3.0 conceded. Marseille come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.5 goals (2.7 for Marseille, 0.8 for Nimes). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is close to our fair price of 1.46. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.00 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Marseille to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Double chance | Marseille or draw ✓ | 93% | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.46 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.90 |
| Half-time result | Marseille ahead at half-time ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Marseille / FT Marseille ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.75 | – |
Form
Marseille – last 6
| 17 May | vs Rennes | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Apr | vs Metz | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Apr | @ Monaco | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | vs Lille | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Mar | vs Auxerre | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Feb | @ Stade Brestois 29 | 0–2 | L |
Nimes – last 2
| 22 Jul | @ Rodez | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Jul | @ Nice | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Nimes.
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Aris Thessalonikis3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Marseille vs Nimes?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Marseille vs Nimes?
On our numbers Marseille have a 78% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Nimes 7%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Nimes?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Marseille vs Nimes?
Marseille vs Nimes (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Thursday 30 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.