Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.54
Penarol vs Cerro Largo preview and prediction
The match
Penarol host Cerro Largo in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 1 August, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT). Penarol are 5th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Cerro Largo sit 15th on 9 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Penarol's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Boston River 3–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cerro Largo's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Central Espanol 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 May 2026, finished Cerro Largo 2–3 Penarol.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Penarol and 0.7 for Cerro Largo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penarol 65%, draw 19%, Cerro Largo 17%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Penarol 1–0 Cerro Largo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol65%fair 1.55 · @1.56
Draw19%fair 5.34 · @3.70
Cerro Largo17%fair 5.96 · @5.60
2.43Expected goals
1.73Penarol xG
0.70Cerro Largo xG
50%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.7 – 0.7 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Penarol have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Cerro Largo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
Penarol vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
