Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPiratas to win ✓63% · @1.67
Double chancePiratas or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗10% · fair 9.77
Dorados vs Piratas preview and prediction
The match
Piratas travel to Estadio El Encanto in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 25 October (01:00 WAT) to face Dorados. Dorados are 13th with 16 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Piratas sit 4th on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Dorados's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Correcaminos Uat 2–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Piratas's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Tepatitlán 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Piratas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.0 for Dorados and 2.2 for Piratas. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dorados 13%, draw 23%, Piratas 63%.
Safer route: Piratas or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Piratas or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Dorados 0–2 Piratas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dorados13%fair 7.42 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.75
Piratas63%fair 1.58 · @1.67
3.15Expected goals
0.96Dorados xG
2.19Piratas xG
61%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
1–210%
0–19%
1–19%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Dorados 1.0 – 2.2 Piratas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Piratas to win✓
63%
1.58
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Piratas or draw✓
87%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Piratas ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Piratas / FT Piratas✓
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
10%
9.77
–
Form
Dorados – last 6
WLLLDD
17 Oct
@ Correcaminos Uat
2–1
W
11 Oct
vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1–3
L
4 Oct
@ Leones Negros UDG
3–6
L
27 Sep
vs Durango
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Cancún
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Piratas – last 6
WLWLWD
18 Oct
vs Tepatitlán
3–0
W
10 Oct
@ Tlaxcala
2–4
L
4 Oct
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4–0
W
25 Sep
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–3
L
19 Sep
vs Venados FC
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dorados and Piratas.
Our pick is Piratas or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Dorados vs Piratas?
On our numbers Dorados have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Piratas 63%.
How many goals will there be in Dorados vs Piratas?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dorados vs Piratas?
Our predicted score is Dorados 0–2 Piratas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Dorados vs Piratas?
Dorados vs Piratas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Encanto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
