Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major prediction & analysis
61%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaerau (Ely) to win ✗68% · @1.25
Double chanceCaerau (Ely) or draw ✗88% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.75
Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major preview and prediction
The match
Caerau (Ely) host Llantwit Major in the FAW Championship on Friday 23 October, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT). Caerau (Ely) are 4th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Llantwit Major sit 15th on 12 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Caerau (Ely)'s last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat llanelli AFC 6–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Llantwit Major's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Trefelin 1–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Caerau (Ely) arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.6 for Caerau (Ely) and 1.1 for Llantwit Major. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caerau (Ely) 68%, draw 20%, Llantwit Major 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Caerau (Ely) 2–1 Llantwit Major. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caerau (Ely)68%fair 1.48 · @1.25
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @5.00
Llantwit Major12%fair 8.29 · @8.50
3.63Expected goals
2.55Caerau (Ely) xG
1.08Llantwit Major xG
61%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–07%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Caerau (Ely) 2.6 – 1.1 Llantwit Major expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win✗
68%
1.48
1.25
Double chance
Caerau (Ely) or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely)✗
47%
2.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.75
–
Form
Caerau (Ely) – last 6
WWWWWW
16 Oct
vs llanelli AFC
6–0
W
10 Oct
@ Aberystwyth Town
1–0
W
2 Oct
vs Afan Lido
2–0
W
26 Sep
@ Cardiff Draconians
3–1
W
11 Sep
vs llanelli AFC
3–0
W
31 Aug
vs Treowen Stars
3–2
W
3.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Llantwit Major – last 6
LDLWWD
17 Oct
@ Trefelin
1–4
L
10 Oct
vs Pontardawe Town
1–1
D
6 Oct
@ Pontypridd Town
1–4
L
2 Oct
@ Carmarthen Town
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs llanelli AFC
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Treowen Stars
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caerau (Ely) and Llantwit Major.
What is the prediction for Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
On our numbers Caerau (Ely) have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Llantwit Major 12%.
How many goals will there be in Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
Our predicted score is Caerau (Ely) 2–1 Llantwit Major, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?
Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
