Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.33Odds
2
Value bet: Bala Town to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBala Town to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceBala Town or draw ✓80% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓10% · fair 10.12
Porthmadog vs Bala Town preview and prediction
The match
The FAW Championship sees Porthmadog take on Bala Town on Saturday 5 September, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT). Porthmadog are 3rd with 27 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Bala Town sit 5th on 24 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Porthmadog's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Holyhead Hotspur 2–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Bala Town's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Newtown AFC 0–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.1 for Porthmadog and 2.0 for Bala Town. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 64%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Porthmadog 20%, draw 24%, Bala Town 56%.
Safer route: Bala Town or draw (80%) at 1.33.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Bala Town to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bala Town or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Porthmadog 1–1 Bala Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Porthmadog20%fair 4.90 · @3.00
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.40
Bala Town56%fair 1.80 · @1.95
3.09Expected goals
1.13Porthmadog xG
1.96Bala Town xG
64%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–29%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Porthmadog 1.1 – 2.0 Bala Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bala Town to win✓
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Bala Town or draw✓
80%
1.26
1.33 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Bala Town ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bala Town / FT Bala Town✓
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
10%
10.12
–
Form
Porthmadog – last 6
DLWDWW
31 Aug
@ Holyhead Hotspur
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Caersws
1–3
L
21 Aug
@ Denbigh Town
3–2
W
15 Aug
@ Buckley Town
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Rhyl
1–0
W
1 Aug
@ Penrhyncoch
3–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bala Town – last 6
LWWWWL
31 Aug
vs Newtown AFC
0–1
L
28 Aug
@ Rhyl
3–1
W
21 Aug
vs Gresford Athletic
3–0
W
7 Aug
vs Ruthin Town
2–1
W
31 Jul
@ Bangor City 1876 FC
2–1
W
27 Jun
vs Colwyn Bay
0–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Porthmadog and Bala Town.
What is the prediction for Porthmadog vs Bala Town?
Our pick is Bala Town or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Porthmadog vs Bala Town?
On our numbers Porthmadog have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bala Town 56%.
How many goals will there be in Porthmadog vs Bala Town?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Porthmadog vs Bala Town?
Our predicted score is Porthmadog 1–1 Bala Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Porthmadog vs Bala Town?
Porthmadog vs Bala Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ynyshir Albions
Pontypridd Town