FAW Championship · Wales · Latham ParkNewtown AFC vs Denbigh Town prediction & analysis
Newtown AFC to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.42 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Newtown AFC 2.6 – 1.0 Denbigh Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Newtown AFC are clear favourites at home with a 71% chance of winning, against 11% for Denbigh Town.
Newtown AFC have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.2 per game. Denbigh Town have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded. Newtown AFC come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.6 goals (2.6 for Newtown AFC, 1.0 for Denbigh Town). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (8%).
Our pick is Newtown AFC to win at a 71% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.36 is close to our fair price of 1.42.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Newtown AFC to win ✓ | 71% | 1.42 | 1.36 |
| Double chance | Newtown AFC or draw ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 70% | 1.42 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Half-time result | Newtown AFC ahead at half-time ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Newtown AFC / FT Newtown AFC ✗ | 49% | 2.04 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.91 | – |
Form
Newtown AFC – last 6
| 31 Aug | @ Bala Town | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Llanuwchllyn | 4–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Guilsfield | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Penrhyncoch | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | @ Gresford Athletic | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Apr | @ Holywell | 0–6 | L |
Denbigh Town – last 6
| 31 Aug | vs Rhyl | 1–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | @ Penrhyncoch | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Aug | vs Porthmadog | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Aug | @ Ruthin Town | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Bangor City 1876 FC | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | @ Buckley Town | 4–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newtown AFC and Denbigh Town.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 14 | +19 | 34 |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 3 |  Porthmadog | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 13 | +15 | 25 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 14 | +3 | 24 |
| 6 |  Caersws | 13 | +10 | 23 |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 13 | +15 | 22 |
| 8 |  Guilsfield | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 |  Buckley Town | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 13 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Llanuwchllyn | 14 | -9 | 15 |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 13 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Rhyl | 14 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 13 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 |  Gresford Athletic | 12 | -26 | 7 |
| 16 |  Penrhyncoch | 13 | -34 | 1 |
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Pontypridd TownFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
Our pick is Newtown AFC to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
On our numbers Newtown AFC have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Denbigh Town 11%.
How many goals will there be in Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Latham Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.