Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town preview and prediction
The match
The FAW Championship sees Newtown AFC take on Denbigh Town on Saturday 5 September, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at Latham Park. Newtown AFC are 2nd with 30 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Denbigh Town sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Newtown AFC's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Bala Town 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Denbigh Town's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Rhyl 1–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Newtown AFC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.6 for Newtown AFC and 1.0 for Denbigh Town. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newtown AFC 71%, draw 19%, Denbigh Town 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.44.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Newtown AFC to win – a 71% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Newtown AFC 2–1 Denbigh Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newtown AFC71%fair 1.42 · @1.36
Draw19%fair 5.37 · @4.50
Denbigh Town11%fair 9.30 · @5.80
3.64Expected goals
2.63Newtown AFC xG
1.01Denbigh Town xG
62%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Newtown AFC 2.6 – 1.0 Denbigh Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newtown AFC to win✓
71%
1.42
1.36
Double chance
Newtown AFC or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.60
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Newtown AFC ahead at half-time✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newtown AFC / FT Newtown AFC✗
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.91
–
Form
Newtown AFC – last 6
WWDWWL
31 Aug
@ Bala Town
1–0
W
28 Aug
vs Llanuwchllyn
4–0
W
15 Aug
vs Guilsfield
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Penrhyncoch
5–0
W
2 Aug
@ Gresford Athletic
3–0
W
8 Apr
@ Holywell
0–6
L
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Denbigh Town – last 6
LDLLLW
31 Aug
vs Rhyl
1–3
L
28 Aug
@ Penrhyncoch
2–2
D
21 Aug
vs Porthmadog
2–3
L
14 Aug
@ Ruthin Town
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Bangor City 1876 FC
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Buckley Town
4–2
W
1.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newtown AFC and Denbigh Town.
What is the prediction for Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
Our pick is Newtown AFC to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
On our numbers Newtown AFC have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Denbigh Town 11%.
How many goals will there be in Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
Our predicted score is Newtown AFC 2–1 Denbigh Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Latham Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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