Value bet: Nizhny Novgorod to win @ 2.68 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNizhny Novgorod to win ✓41% · @2.68
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.81
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 11.50
Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Ural take on Nizhny Novgorod on Sunday 18 October, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Central Stadium(Yekaterinburg). Ural are 2nd with 34 points from 17 games (in the top four), while Nizhny Novgorod sit 1st on 46 points (top of the table). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ural's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Veles 1–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Nizhny Novgorod's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nizhny Novgorod arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Ural and 1.5 for Nizhny Novgorod. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Nizhny Novgorod to win at 2.68 – 41% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.32. Predicted score: Ural 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ural35%fair 2.83 · @2.49
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.22
Nizhny Novgorod41%fair 2.46 · @2.68
2.86Expected goals
1.37Ural xG
1.49Nizhny Novgorod xG
53%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Ural 1.4 – 1.5 Nizhny Novgorod expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nizhny Novgorod to win✓
41%
2.46
2.68 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.81
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nizhny Novgorod / FT Nizhny Novgorod✗
24%
4.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
11.50
–
Form
Ural – last 6
LWWDLW
10 Oct
vs Veles
1–2
L
26 Sep
@ Spartak Kostroma
2–1
W
18 Sep
@ FK Neftekhimik
1–0
W
14 Sep
@ Shinnik Yaroslavl
1–1
D
10 Sep
@ Luki-Energiya
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs KAMAZ
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nizhny Novgorod – last 6
WWWWWW
14 Oct
vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
4–0
W
10 Oct
vs Enisey
5–0
W
17 Sep
vs Leningradets
6–0
W
13 Sep
@ Torpedo Moskva
2–1
W
9 Sep
@ Dinamo Stavropol
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ FC Sochi
1–0
W
3.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ural and Nizhny Novgorod.
What is the prediction for Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
On our numbers Ural have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nizhny Novgorod 41%.
How many goals will there be in Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our predicted score is Ural 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Ural vs Nizhny Novgorod (First League) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Central Stadium(Yekaterinburg).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
