First League · Russia · Avangard Stadium (Domodedovo)Veles vs Shinnik Yaroslavl prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.08 – our chance 55% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Veles 1.2 – 1.1 Shinnik Yaroslavl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Veles and Shinnik Yaroslavl on our numbers – 41% for the home side, 34% for the visitors and 25% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Veles have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Shinnik Yaroslavl have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.2 for Veles, 1.1 for Shinnik Yaroslavl). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (11%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.55. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.08 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Veles to win ✗ | 41% | 2.46 | 2.32 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | 2.08 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.11 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Veles / FT Veles ✗ | 22% | 4.45 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.23 | – |
Form
Veles – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Ural | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Volga Ulyanovsk | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Sep | @ Torpedo Moskva | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sep | vs FC Sochi | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sep | @ Murom | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | @ FC UFA | 1–1 | D |
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
| 14 Oct | @ Nizhny Novgorod | 0–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Tekstilshchik | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Ska-khabarovsk | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs KAMAZ | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Ural | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Sep | vs Torpedo Moskva | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Veles and Shinnik Yaroslavl.
First League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |  Torpedo Moskva | 17 | +16 | 32 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 18 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
More First League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Veles vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Veles vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
On our numbers Veles have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 34%.
How many goals will there be in Veles vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Veles vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Veles vs Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Avangard Stadium (Domodedovo).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.