Value bet: Penybont to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenybont to win ✓60% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.58
Penybont vs Airbus UK preview and prediction
The match
Penybont host Airbus UK in the Premier League on Saturday 26 September, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Bryntirion Park. Penybont are 3rd with 36 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Airbus UK sit 5th on 30 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Penybont's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Ammanford AFC 5–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Airbus UK's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Flint Town United 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Penybont arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.8 for Penybont and 1.0 for Airbus UK. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Penybont 60%, draw 15%, Airbus UK 25%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Penybont to win at 1.90 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Penybont 1–1 Airbus UK. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penybont60%fair 1.66 · @1.90
Draw15%fair 6.80 · @3.50
Airbus UK25%fair 3.97 · @3.30
2.86Expected goals
1.83Penybont xG
1.03Airbus UK xG
56%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–010%
3–16%
0–16%
From our goals model: Penybont 1.8 – 1.0 Airbus UK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penybont to win✓
60%
1.66
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.17
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.33
Half-time result
Penybont ahead at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penybont / FT Penybont✗
35%
2.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.58
–
Form
Penybont – last 6
WWWWDD
18 Sep
@ Ammanford AFC
5–1
W
15 Sep
vs Briton Ferry
3–2
W
11 Sep
@ Trefelin
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Colwyn Bay
1–0
W
31 Aug
@ Cambrian & Clydach
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Flint Town United
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Airbus UK – last 6
WLLWWL
18 Sep
vs Flint Town United
4–1
W
15 Sep
@ GAP Connah S Quay FC
0–3
L
11 Sep
vs The New Saints
0–2
L
4 Sep
@ Briton Ferry
2–0
W
31 Aug
vs Holywell
6–2
W
28 Aug
@ Barry Town
2–4
L
2.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penybont and Airbus UK.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Penybont vs Airbus UK?
On our numbers Penybont have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Airbus UK 25%.
How many goals will there be in Penybont vs Airbus UK?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penybont vs Airbus UK?
Our predicted score is Penybont 1–1 Airbus UK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Penybont vs Airbus UK?
Penybont vs Airbus UK (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Bryntirion Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
