Value bet: Nacional to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFamalicao to win ✓48% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.48
Nacional vs Famalicao preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees Nacional take on Famalicao on Saturday 19 September, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT) at Estádio da Madeira. Nacional are 13th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Famalicao sit 10th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nacional's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Alverca 1–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Famalicao's last 5: DDDLL Most recently they drew with Sporting CP 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Nacional and 1.4 for Famalicao. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional 30%, draw 22%, Famalicao 48%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Nacional to win at 3.60 – 30% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Nacional 1–1 Famalicao. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional30%fair 3.32 · @3.60
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.20
Famalicao48%fair 2.09 · @2.00
2.50Expected goals
1.06Nacional xG
1.44Famalicao xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Nacional 1.1 – 1.4 Famalicao expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Famalicao to win✓
48%
2.09
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Famalicao / FT Famalicao✓
27%
3.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.48
–
Form
Nacional – last 6
LLLLWD
12 Sep
vs Alverca
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Sporting CP
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Estrela
2–3
L
23 Aug
@ Vitória SC
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Estoril
2–0
W
10 Aug
@ Santa Clara
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Famalicao – last 6
DDDLLD
13 Sep
vs Sporting CP
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Estrela
2–2
D
30 Aug
vs GIL Vicente
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Santa Clara
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Maritimo
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Estoril
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional and Famalicao.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Nacional vs Famalicao?
On our numbers Nacional have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Famalicao 48%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs Famalicao?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs Famalicao?
Our predicted score is Nacional 1–1 Famalicao, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Nacional vs Famalicao?
Nacional vs Famalicao (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Madeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
