Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Alverca to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlverca to win ✓61% · @1.95
Double chanceAlverca or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.10
Alverca vs Rio Ave preview and prediction
The match
Rio Ave travel to Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 19 September (18:00 WAT) to face Alverca. Alverca are 11th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Rio Ave sit 17th on 7 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Alverca's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Nacional 3–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Rio Ave's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Estrela 3–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.1 for Alverca and 1.0 for Rio Ave. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alverca 61%, draw 24%, Rio Ave 15%.
Safer route: Alverca or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Alverca to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alverca or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alverca 2–1 Rio Ave. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alverca61%fair 1.65 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.30
Rio Ave15%fair 6.69 · @3.75
3.17Expected goals
2.14Alverca xG
1.03Rio Ave xG
59%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Alverca 2.1 – 1.0 Rio Ave expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alverca to win✓
61%
1.65
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Alverca or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Alverca ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alverca / FT Alverca✓
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.10
–
Form
Alverca – last 6
WLDLDL
12 Sep
@ Nacional
3–1
W
5 Sep
vs SC Braga
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Santa Clara
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Sporting CP
1–3
L
15 Aug
vs Estrela
2–2
D
9 Aug
@ FC Porto
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Rio Ave – last 6
DLLWLL
14 Sep
vs Estrela
3–3
D
6 Sep
@ Santa Clara
0–4
L
28 Aug
vs Sporting CP
0–4
L
22 Aug
@ Estoril
2–0
W
15 Aug
vs FC Porto
0–2
L
9 Aug
@ GIL Vicente
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alverca and Rio Ave.
Our pick is Alverca or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alverca vs Rio Ave?
On our numbers Alverca have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Rio Ave 15%.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Rio Ave?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Rio Ave?
Our predicted score is Alverca 2–1 Rio Ave, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Alverca vs Rio Ave?
Alverca vs Rio Ave (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
