The Primeira Liga sees Sporting CP take on Nacional on Saturday 5 September, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT). Sporting CP are 3rd with 24 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Nacional sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sporting CP's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Rio Ave 4–0 away. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Nacional's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Estrela 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Sporting CP arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.7 for Sporting CP and 0.9 for Nacional. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 70% and both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sporting CP 74%, draw 16%, Nacional 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sporting CP to win – a 74% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Sporting CP 2–0 Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting CP74%fair 1.36 · @1.22
Draw16%fair 6.09 · @6.00
Nacional10%fair 9.97 · @11.00
3.63Expected goals
2.69Sporting CP xG
0.94Nacional xG
54%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–19%
3–09%
3–18%
1–07%
1–17%
From our goals model: Sporting CP 2.7 – 0.9 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting CP to win✓
74%
1.36
1.22
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Sporting CP ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting CP / FT Sporting CP✓
51%
1.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
10%
10.45
–
Form
Sporting CP – last 6
WWWDWW
28 Aug
@ Rio Ave
4–0
W
22 Aug
vs Alverca
3–1
W
14 Aug
vs Vitória SC
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ Estrela
2–2
D
31 Jul
vs Nottingham Forest
4–1
W
25 Jul
vs Monaco
2–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Nacional – last 6
LLWDLD
30 Aug
vs Estrela
2–3
L
23 Aug
@ Vitória SC
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Estoril
2–0
W
10 Aug
@ Santa Clara
2–2
D
23 Jul
@ Estrela
0–2
L
22 Jul
vs Leganes
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting CP and Nacional.
What is the prediction for Sporting CP vs Nacional?
Our pick is Sporting CP to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sporting CP vs Nacional?
On our numbers Sporting CP have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Nacional 10%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting CP vs Nacional?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting CP vs Nacional?
Our predicted score is Sporting CP 2–0 Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Sporting CP vs Nacional?
Sporting CP vs Nacional (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
