Value bet: Estrela to win @ 2.80 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstrela to win ✗39% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Estrela vs Famalicao preview and prediction
The match
Famalicao travel to face Estrela in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 5 September (15:30 WAT). Estrela are 12th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Famalicao sit 10th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Estrela's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Nacional 3–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Famalicao's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with GIL Vicente 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Estrela arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 May 2026, finished Estrela 0–0 Famalicao.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Estrela and 1.3 for Famalicao. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Estrela to win at 2.80 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Estrela 1–1 Famalicao. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estrela39%fair 2.58 · @2.80
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.00
Famalicao36%fair 2.79 · @2.50
2.71Expected goals
1.39Estrela xG
1.32Famalicao xG
53%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Estrela 1.4 – 1.3 Famalicao expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Estrela vs Famalicao?
On our numbers Estrela have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Famalicao 36%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Famalicao?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Famalicao?
Our predicted score is Estrela 1–1 Famalicao, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Estrela vs Famalicao?
Estrela vs Famalicao (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
