Primeira Liga · PortugalMaritimo vs Benfica prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.77 · bookmaker 2.00 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Maritimo 1.1 – 2.5 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Benfica travel as clear favourites – 67% to win, against 13% for Maritimo.
Maritimo have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Benfica have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 3.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Benfica come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.6 goals (1.1 for Maritimo, 2.5 for Benfica). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (9%), 1–3 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 56% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.00 is better than our fair price of 1.77, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Benfica to win ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Double chance | Benfica or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.77 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.45 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Half-time result | Benfica ahead at half-time ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Benfica / FT Benfica ✓ | 45% | 2.20 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 10.60 | – |
Form
Maritimo – last 6
| 29 Aug | @ Arouca | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Academico Viseu | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | @ Famalicao | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Jul | vs Estrela | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Jul | vs Machico | 0–0 | D |
Benfica – last 6
| 31 Aug | vs Estoril | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Aug | @ Aarhus | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Aug | vs Aarhus | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Aug | @ Casa Pia | 7–0 | W |
| 13 Aug | @ Heart Of Midlothian | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | vs Academico Viseu | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Maritimo and Benfica.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | +22 | 33 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 11 | +20 | 28 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | +2 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | -14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | -14 | 2 |
More Primeira Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Maritimo vs Benfica?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Maritimo vs Benfica?
On our numbers Maritimo have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Benfica 67%.
How many goals will there be in Maritimo vs Benfica?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Maritimo vs Benfica?
Maritimo vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.